How Democrats Are, and Aren’t, Challenging the Trump Economic Record
Ask Democratic candidates for president how they would challenge President Trump’s boasts about the economy, and the initial response tends to be less an attack than a concession.
“The overall numbers about G.D.P. or the stock market are great,” said Elizabeth Warren after a town hall here last week, before discussing long-term wage stagnation and health care costs.
“Yes, we are at a moment of stability, and we’re at this moment of expansion,” said Amy Klobuchar at an economy-themed talk at Dartmouth, before saying that made it a good time to address inequality and climate change.
“So Donald Trump is elected in the last two years — and I will confess, even he couldn’t screw up the momentum,” said Michael Bennet on “Meet the Press,” before mentioning housing, health care and higher education costs.
This speaks to the fundamental challenge that the eventual Democratic nominee is likely to face next year: an economy that is easily the strongest in two decades, with an unemployment rate at 50-year lows. How does a Democrat answer Mr. Trump’s inevitable claims that he has done more for the economy than any president ever?
Economists have some perfectly good rejoinders, which Democratic candidates for the presidency and many of their supporters are happy to articulate when asked.
In particular, since Mr. Trump’s inauguration, the United States has experienced more a steady continuation of an expansion underway for the last seven years of the Obama administration than a meaningful acceleration of growth.
Tax cuts and spending increases have fueled the recent good times, raising the budget deficit and implying a slowdown could occur as those effects wear off. And while wages have started to grow a bit faster — 3.2 percent over the last year, versus 2.6 percent at the time of the 2016 election — they are not rising nearly as fast as they did during other prosperous periods in recent decades.
But these kinds of nuanced arguments are usually not the stuff of campaign rallies. And if the overall economic numbers remain strong, the Democratic nominee will be looking for a pathway to defeat Mr. Trump that is distinctly different from those taken the last two times an incumbent president lost. Historically, when a president seeks re-election, it amounts to a referendum on the state of the economy.
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